If you could only watch one number to understand Holmdel’s housing market, make it months of supply. With a quick calculation and a few cross-checks, you can see if conditions favor buyers or sellers and how fast you need to move. Whether you are pricing a listing or preparing to write an offer, a simple, consistent read of the data gives you confidence.
In this guide, you will learn the key metrics, where to find them, how to compute months of supply in minutes, and how to interpret signals for Holmdel specifically. I will also show you a worked example you can replicate at home. Let’s dive in.
Start with a clear snapshot
Here is a current, big-picture view of Holmdel based on widely used public sources. Always note the source, the exact geography, and the date because different vendors report different areas and time windows.
- Zillow ZHVI for Holmdel Township: typical home value about $1,033,806 (data through Dec 31, 2025; ZHVI is a modeled, smoothed trend series).
- Redfin market snapshot for Holmdel Township: median sale price about $1.16 million, up roughly 12.1% year over year, with median days on market around 85 in recent snapshots.
- Realtor.com for ZIP 07733: median list or sale price reported near $1,492,499, about 32 active listings, and median days on market about 86 days for December 2025. Note that ZIP 07733 is not the same as township boundaries.
- Homes.com 12‑month sold summary: median sale price about $980,000; months of supply near 1.10; median days on market reported around 23 days based on a different methodology.
- Sales count: multiple sources show roughly 160 to 170 closings in the past 12 months, which is a modest sample for a town at Holmdel’s price point.
Why the spread? Vendors use different geographies (township vs ZIP), different metrics (median price vs modeled index), and different time windows. ZHVI, for example, is a modeled “typical value,” not a raw median. You can read the ZHVI methodology in Zillow’s own notes on how they build the index for context on why it often differs from median sale price trends. For neutral definitions of common market metrics like months of supply, see the Domus Analytics industry glossary.
- Read more on ZHVI’s construction: how ZHVI is built.
- Industry metric definitions: months of supply and other terms.
The four signals that matter most in Holmdel
Inventory and months of supply
- What it means: Inventory is the number of active listings at a point in time. Months of supply (MSI) estimates how long it would take to sell all active listings at the recent sales pace. The formula is simple: MSI = Active Listings ÷ Average Monthly Closed Sales.
- How to interpret: About 5 to 7 months is considered balanced by industry convention. Less than about 3 months leans toward a seller’s market. More than about 6 months leans toward a buyer’s market.
Worked example for Holmdel using publicly reported figures:
- Active listings: 32 (Realtor.com, ZIP 07733, Dec 2025).
- Closed sales: about 167 in the last 12 months (township-level reports from secondary sources).
- Average monthly closed sales: 167 ÷ 12 ≈ 13.9.
- MSI calculation: 32 ÷ 13.9 ≈ 2.3 months.
Interpretation: About 2.3 months suggests constrained supply, which typically supports firm pricing. This is a blended example that mixes ZIP and township sources, so treat it as order of magnitude. If you can, compute MSI using a single data source and a single geography for cleaner precision.
Days on market (DOM)
- What it means: DOM is the median or average number of days a listing takes to go under contract.
- Holmdel signal: Recent snapshots show median DOM in the mid‑80s from some vendors, while others report shorter times based on different filters. Use the same vendor for any trend comparisons so you are comparing apples to apples.
Prices and sale-to-list ratio
- Median sale price: the middle closed price in a period. It can jump around in smaller, higher‑priced towns when a few luxury sales land in the same month.
- ZHVI: Zillow’s modeled, seasonally adjusted “typical value.” It is useful for smoothing out short-term swings, but it will not match monthly medians exactly. See methodology above for why.
- Sale-to-list ratio: close price divided by last list price. Recent Holmdel snapshots have hovered near 99 to 100 percent, which signals that many homes are selling close to asking. Track the trend: a rising ratio suggests tight competition, while a falling ratio can hint at more buyer leverage.
Volume and sample size
Holmdel sees about 150 to 170 sales in a typical 12‑month window. That is a modest sample, and a handful of high‑end closings can move the medians. When you cite a median, also show how many sales that number represents. For cross-checking overall sales counts, tools like PropertyFocus can be helpful: Holmdel 12‑month sales trends.
A 10‑minute workflow to read Holmdel’s market
Use this quick, repeatable process whenever you want a grounded snapshot.
Set your scope. Decide on geography and time window upfront. For example: Holmdel Township for the last 12 months. Write it down so you stay consistent.
Pull the core set. From a single source when possible, grab active listings, total closed sales for your time frame, median DOM, and median sale price. If you are working with an agent, ask for an MLS market report. The Garden State MLS is the primary professional source in much of New Jersey: GSMLS.
Compute months of supply. Use MSI = Active Listings ÷ (Closed Sales ÷ Months in Period). Then interpret using the balanced thresholds described by industry references: metric definitions.
Check sale-to-list ratio and price reductions. If sale-to-list is at or above 100 percent and price cuts are scarce, plan for competitive offers. If sale-to-list is slipping and you see frequent reductions, expect more negotiation room.
Segment by property type and price band. Compare like to like: single‑family to single‑family, townhome to townhome, and keep size within roughly 10 to 20 percent of your target home. If sample sizes are thin, widen your time window to 6 to 12 months.
Validate key comps with public records. Confirm transfer prices and deed dates through Monmouth County’s portals, and verify lot and building details with the tax assessor data: Monmouth County resources.
Label your sources. In your notes, record “Vendor — Geography — Date” for every figure. Example: “Realtor.com (ZIP 07733), Dec 2025.” This keeps everyone on the same page.
Interpreting signals in plain language
Use these quick reads to translate data into action.
- MSI under about 3 months and sale-to-list near or above 100 percent: Expect firm pricing, quicker decisions, and limited room for contingencies. Buyers should secure pre‑approval and be offer‑ready. Sellers should price close to the market and focus on presentation.
- MSI between about 3 and 6 months with steady DOM: A more balanced feel. Buyers gain time to compare. Sellers still get solid activity when priced to recent comps.
- MSI above about 6 months, rising DOM, and visible price cuts: Cooling conditions. Buyers can negotiate on price or terms. Sellers should revisit pricing strategy and repair or staging priorities to stand out.
- Stable MSI but rising median price: Could be mix shift, such as more high‑end closings in the sample. Check the number of sales and price bands before calling it appreciation.
Important caveats for Holmdel
- Geography differences: Holmdel Township and ZIP 07733 are not identical. Medians will differ. Always label the geography you used.
- Small sample sizes: With roughly 160 to 170 annual closings, a cluster of luxury sales can tilt the median. Show the sale count alongside any median.
- Data timing: MLS data is most current, public deed records are authoritative but lag a bit, and public aggregators may revise back in time as they reconcile feeds.
- Off‑market activity: Private sales and pocket listings will not appear in public listing feeds until the deed is recorded.
When to get tailored advice
Some situations call for a custom approach.
- Unique or estate‑level property: Multi‑acre sites, historic homes, or highly customized builds benefit from local appraiser input and an experienced listing agent.
- Narrow margins: If your offer ceiling is close to asking price or you expect multiple offers, work with your agent to design escalation and contingency language that fits your risk tolerance.
- Complex factors: Taxes, estates, easements, or anticipated development changes. Confirm with your attorney and planning officials, and verify details with Monmouth County records: county portals.
Quick checklist to save
- Write “Vendor — Geography — Date” for every figure you cite.
- Pull and show the number of closed sales behind any median.
- Compute and show MSI with the exact math so others can replicate it.
- Track both a 3‑month and a 12‑month trend when possible to separate noise from direction.
- Segment by property type and price band, then compare like to like.
If you want a clean, MLS‑backed snapshot for your block, I am happy to prepare it and walk you through pricing, timing, and negotiation options. To get started, reach out to Doreen DeMarco for a brief consult or to request a Free Home Valuation.
FAQs
What is months of supply in real estate and why does it matter in Holmdel?
- Months of supply estimates how long current inventory would take to sell at the recent sales pace. In Holmdel, MSI under about 3 months typically signals seller‑leaning conditions and firmer pricing.
How do I calculate months of supply using Holmdel data I can find online?
- Divide active listings by average monthly closed sales. Example: 32 active listings ÷ (167 sales ÷ 12) ≈ 2.3 months. Keep your source, geography, and date consistent.
Why do Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com show different Holmdel prices?
- They use different geographies, time windows, and methods. ZHVI is a modeled “typical value,” while medians are raw sold prices. Always label the source and date.
What does days on market tell me about buying or selling in Holmdel?
- Shorter DOM means homes go under contract faster. If DOM rises while price cuts increase, buyers may gain leverage. Steady or falling DOM often supports firmer pricing.
How should I choose comps for a Holmdel home valuation?
- Stay within the same property type and within about 10 to 20 percent of living area, then focus on similar bed/bath count and lot size. If sample sizes are small, widen your time window to 6 to 12 months.
